Commodity Seasonality

    Nature Sets
    the Calendar

    Commodities follow the rhythms of nature — harvest cycles, weather patterns, heating seasons, and industrial demand peaks. These physical forces create some of the most reliable seasonal patterns in all of trading.

    Explore gold, oil, natural gas, grains, and metals — with 20+ years of seasonal data, backtesting, and portfolio tools.

    Gold (GC) — Monthly Avg Returns

    20-Year Seasonality Profile

    20Y avg
    +2.8%
    Jan
    +1.5%
    Feb
    -0.3%
    Mar
    +0.6%
    Apr
    -0.8%
    May
    -1.2%
    Jun
    +0.4%
    Jul
    +1.8%
    Aug
    +1.2%
    Sep
    -0.5%
    Oct
    -0.2%
    Nov
    +0.8%
    Dec
    Video guide

    Watch the workflow before exploring the use case: discovery, validation, and execution planning in one clear process.

    30+

    Commodities Covered

    Metals, Energy, Grains, Softs

    20Y+

    Data Depth

    Per commodity

    Yes

    Physical Drivers

    Supply/demand cycle awareness

    100%

    Backtest Ready

    Any pattern, instant

    Why Commodities Have the Strongest Seasonality

    Unlike stocks, commodity prices are directly tied to physical reality — weather, harvests, industrial cycles, and energy demand.

    Energy Cycles

    Winter heating, summer driving, refinery maintenance — energy commodities follow predictable demand calendars.

    Agricultural Seasons

    Planting, growing, and harvest windows create supply anxiety and seasonal price movements in grains and softs.

    Precious Metals Demand

    Chinese New Year, Indian wedding season, jewelry demand peaks — gold and silver have clear seasonal demand drivers.

    Industrial Cycles

    Copper and base metals follow construction and manufacturing seasons, creating seasonal demand patterns.

    Compare Commodity Seasonality

    Gold — Monthly Avg Returns

    20-Year Seasonality Profile

    20Y avg
    +2.8%
    Jan
    +1.5%
    Feb
    -0.3%
    Mar
    +0.6%
    Apr
    -0.8%
    May
    -1.2%
    Jun
    +0.4%
    Jul
    +1.8%
    Aug
    +1.2%
    Sep
    -0.5%
    Oct
    -0.2%
    Nov
    +0.8%
    Dec

    Understanding Commodity-Specific Drivers

    Each commodity sub-class follows different seasonal logic. Here's what drives recurring patterns in each group.

    Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum)

    • Chinese New Year buying (Jan–Feb)
    • Indian wedding/monsoon season (Aug–Sep)
    • Year-end safe-haven positioning
    • Central bank reserve management cycles

    Gold is unique: its seasonality is driven by cultural demand cycles rather than industrial supply constraints. This makes its seasonal patterns among the most stable across all commodities.

    Energy (Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Heating Oil)

    • Summer driving season preparation (Feb–Apr)
    • Hurricane season risk premium (Aug–Oct)
    • Winter heating demand expectations (Sep–Nov)
    • Refinery turnaround schedules (spring/fall)

    Energy seasonality is the most volatility-prone. Natural gas has the widest seasonal swings of any major commodity — September-to-November rallies can deliver 8–15% moves.

    Grains (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

    • Planting season uncertainty (Apr–May)
    • Growing season weather anxiety (Jun–Jul)
    • Harvest pressure (Sep–Oct)
    • South American crop competition cycles

    Agricultural seasonality is weather-dependent and can reverse dramatically in drought years. But over 20 years, the planting-to-harvest cycle creates statistically robust seasonal patterns.

    Industrial Metals (Copper, Aluminum)

    • Q1 Chinese construction surge
    • Spring infrastructure spending
    • Summer slowdown
    • Year-end inventory adjustments

    Industrial metals track global economic cycles more closely than other commodities. Their seasonality is a proxy for global growth expectations — making them useful as a macro seasonal indicator.

    Key Commodity Seasonal Windows

    Precious Metals Rallystrong
    January – March

    Gold and silver typically rally on Chinese New Year demand, portfolio rebalancing, and safe-haven flows at the start of the year.

    Crude Oil Pre-Summer Buildstrong
    February – April

    Refinery restocking ahead of summer driving season pushes crude prices higher. One of the most reliable commodity seasonal windows.

    Natural Gas Winter Buildstrong
    September – November

    Anticipation of winter heating demand drives natural gas prices. Storage reports become critical during this window.

    Grain Planting Volatilitymoderate
    May – July

    Weather uncertainty during planting and growing season creates volatility in wheat, corn, and soybeans.

    Scan Commodity Seasonal Patterns

    Commodity Screener — Active Patterns

    8 patterns found
    AssetWindowDirWin RateAvg RetMax DDPF
    Gold (GC)Jan 15 – Mar 10 Long75%+4.2%-3.5%2.1
    Crude Oil (CL)Feb 1 – Apr 30 Long73%+6.5%-8.2%1.8
    Nat Gas (NG)Sep 1 – Nov 15 Long72%+8.1%-12.4%1.5
    Silver (SI)Jul 20 – Sep 10 Long68%+3.6%-5.8%1.6
    Copper (HG)Jan 1 – Mar 31 Long71%+4.8%-6.0%1.7
    Wheat (ZW)May 15 – Jul 31 Long67%+5.3%-9.1%1.4
    Soybeans (ZS)Jun 1 – Jul 15 Long65%+4.0%-7.5%1.3
    Palladium (PA)Jan 1 – Feb 28 Long70%+5.5%-7.0%1.6

    Featured Commodity Patterns

    Gold (GC)
    LONG
    Jan 15 – Mar 10

    75%

    Win Rate

    +4.2%

    Avg Return

    20Y

    History

    Crude Oil (CL)
    LONG
    Feb 1 – Apr 30

    73%

    Win Rate

    +6.5%

    Avg Return

    20Y

    History

    Silver (SI)
    LONG
    Jul 20 – Sep 10

    68%

    Win Rate

    +3.6%

    Avg Return

    20Y

    History

    Natural Gas (NG)
    LONG
    Sep 1 – Nov 15

    72%

    Win Rate

    +8.1%

    Avg Return

    20Y

    History

    Wheat (ZW)
    LONG
    May 15 – Jul 31

    67%

    Win Rate

    +5.3%

    Avg Return

    20Y

    History

    Copper (HG)
    LONG
    Jan 1 – Mar 31

    71%

    Win Rate

    +4.8%

    Avg Return

    20Y

    History

    Gold — Full Year Seasonal Curve

    20-year composite showing gold's typical annual rhythm: strong Q1, summer lull, and autumn recovery.

    Gold Annual Seasonality

    20-Year Composite

    Avg Performance
    JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

    From Chart to Validated Strategy

    Seasonality360 takes you from a raw seasonal observation to a backtested, portfolio-ready edge — in one integrated workflow.

    Step 1

    Discover

    Scan thousands of seasonal patterns across markets, timeframes, and calendar windows.

    Step 2

    Analyze

    Read seasonality charts, monthly returns, and historical consistency at a glance.

    Step 3

    Validate

    Backtest any pattern with real historical data — equity curves, drawdowns, trade-by-trade.

    Step 4

    Build

    Combine validated patterns into diversified portfolios with aggregate risk metrics.

    Explore Commodity Seasonality

    Analyze seasonal patterns across 30+ commodities — gold, oil, grains, metals — with integrated backtesting.

    Frequently Asked Questions