AAPL isn't just the world's largest stock — it's one of the most calendar-predictable. iPhone launches, holiday quarters, and WWDC create a seasonal rhythm that serious traders track, test, and exploit.
20+ years of AAPL seasonal data. Screen the strongest windows, backtest your timing, and see which patterns survive stress.
20-Year Seasonality Profile
Watch the workflow before exploring the use case: discovery, validation, and execution planning in one clear process.
Oct
Best Month
+3.1% avg return
Sep
Worst Month
-2.8% avg return
80%
Q4 Rally Win Rate
Oct–Dec window
20Y+
Data Depth
Daily resolution
Unlike most stocks, Apple's calendar is driven by a repeatable product cadence. This makes its seasonality more structural and less random.
The single most important event in AAPL's calendar. Pre-launch anticipation peaks in July–August; the September launch itself often marks a short-term top.
Apple's biggest revenue quarter. October–December captures device sales, App Store spending, and services revenue. The seasonal tailwind is institutional.
Apple's developer conference. Software announcements create narrative cycles, but historically June is weak for the stock — 'sell the event' pattern.
Q1 earnings (late January) reveal holiday results. Q3 earnings (late July) set iPhone expectations. These events create micro-seasonal pivots.
The composite curve tells the story: weakness early in the year, a summer bump ahead of the iPhone launch, a September dip, then Q4 acceleration.
20-Year Cumulative Average
AAPL's strongest window. iPhone launch in September drives October–December momentum. Holiday sales, institutional buying, and index rebalancing amplify the move. 80% win rate over 20 years.
Anticipation of Q3 earnings (typically late July) and initial iPhone supply chain buzz create a summer rally. Often the second-best seasonal window.
AAPL's worst month. The classic 'buy the rumor, sell the news' around iPhone launch. Despite product excitement, the stock often pulls back as early buyers take profits.
After the Q4 rally, AAPL often consolidates. Analysts reassess holiday sales figures, and the stock drifts before spring catalysts arrive.
Not all mega-caps share Apple's seasonal DNA. Product-cycle-driven stocks behave differently from subscription-driven or ad-driven ones.
MSFT has smoother seasonality — its cloud/subscription model reduces calendar spikes. AAPL's Q4 is much stronger (+6.8% vs. ~+3.5%), but AAPL's Sep drawdown is deeper. MSFT is the steadier seasonal name.
GOOGL (Alphabet) has ad-revenue-driven seasonality — Q4 is strong due to holiday ad spend, but its September isn't as weak as AAPL's because there's no 'sell the launch' effect.
Both benefit from Q4 holiday spending, but through different channels. AMZN's Prime Day creates a summer seasonal peak AAPL doesn't have. AAPL's Q4 rally starts earlier (October vs. November for AMZN).
Seasonal patterns are powerful context, not standalone signals. Here's what you need to test before trading them.
Does the Q4 rally survive bear markets?
The 2022 bear market broke AAPL's Q4 pattern. Backtest the window filtering by market regime to see how it performs in stress environments.
Is the September selloff still relevant if Apple changes launch timing?
In 2020, the iPhone launch shifted to October. Did the Sep weakness persist? Use the backtester to check year-by-year results.
How much of AAPL's seasonality is just broad market beta?
Compare AAPL's seasonal profile to SPY's. If they move together, the pattern may be market-driven, not Apple-specific. The research platform lets you overlay both.
What's the optimal entry for the Q4 rally?
Is it better to enter on Oct 1, Oct 15, or after the iPhone launch? The backtest engine lets you test multiple entry dates to find the sharpest risk-adjusted window.
All major AAPL seasonal patterns with key metrics. Filter, sort, and validate any window in the app.
| Asset | Window | Dir | Win Rate | Avg Ret | Max DD | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Oct 1 – Dec 31 | Long | 80% | +6.8% | -5.5% | 2.5 |
| AAPL | Jul 1 – Aug 15 | Long | 75% | +3.5% | -4.8% | 1.9 |
| AAPL | Oct 25 – Jan 10 | Long | 82% | +7.2% | -6.1% | 2.7 |
| AAPL | Apr 1 – Apr 30 | Long | 72% | +1.5% | -3.2% | 1.6 |
| AAPL | Sep 1 – Sep 30 | Short | 74% | +2.6% | -4.5% | 1.8 |
| AAPL | Jun 1 – Jun 30 | Short | 62% | +1.4% | -3.9% | 1.3 |
80%
Win Rate
+6.8%
Avg Return
20Y
History
75%
Win Rate
+3.5%
Avg Return
20Y
History
72%
Win Rate
+1.5%
Avg Return
20Y
History
74%
Win Rate
+2.6%
Avg Return
20Y
History
82%
Win Rate
+7.2%
Avg Return
20Y
History
62%
Win Rate
+1.4%
Avg Return
15Y
History
You've seen AAPL's seasonal blueprint. Now move from observation to validation inside the platform.
Open the screener and filter for AAPL. See every seasonal window ranked by win rate, profit factor, and drawdown — then pick the ones worth testing.
Open in appDefine Oct 1 – Dec 31 as your window. The backtest engine shows you the equity curve, every individual trade, and whether this pattern holds under stress.
Open in appUse the screener to overlay AAPL's seasonal profile against other mega-caps. Which ones share the Q4 rally? Which diverge?
Open in appAAPL is just one name. Screen thousands of stocks for seasonal patterns — filter by sector, market cap, or window length.
Open in appTurn Apple's product-cycle seasonality into backtested, portfolio-ready strategies.