The Nasdaq 100 isn't just a tech index — it's a concentration of the world's most-watched growth stocks. Its seasonal patterns are sharper, faster, and higher-beta than any broad market benchmark.
AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, META, AMZN — their combined seasonality drives the Nasdaq's calendar. Understand it, screen it, validate it.
20-Year Seasonality Profile
Watch the workflow before exploring the use case: discovery, validation, and execution planning in one clear process.
52%
Top 10 Weight
Extreme concentration
Nov–Dec
Best Window
+5.2% avg return
Sep
Worst Month
-2.1% avg return
1.3x
Beta vs SPY
Amplified seasonal moves
The Nasdaq 100's seasonality isn't just amplified SPY — it's shaped by the seasonal rhythms of a handful of mega-cap tech stocks.
iPhone launch cycle creates a predictable summer run-up. September product event often triggers 'sell the news' — affecting the entire Nasdaq.
AI/GPU demand cycles and CES announcements drive strong Q1 seasonality. NVDA's seasonal swings are among the largest in the Nasdaq 100.
Enterprise software renewals, fiscal year-end deals, and Azure growth expectations create consistent Q4 momentum for Microsoft.
Ad revenue cycles peak around holiday spending. Q3 earnings (late October) often catalyze a strong seasonal rally.
Prime Day (July), holiday shopping season (Oct–Dec), and AWS re:Invent conference create multiple seasonal catalysts.
Tesla's quarterly delivery push creates end-of-quarter seasonality. The Q4 delivery surge is the strongest, driving year-end Nasdaq momentum.
The steeper trajectory and deeper dips tell the story: Nasdaq seasonality is SPY on steroids — higher highs, lower lows, sharper turns.
20-Year Cumulative Average
Same general rhythm, but the magnitude and drivers are different. Here's where the Nasdaq's seasonal fingerprint stands apart.
Nasdaq outperforms significantly in January. New-year allocation into growth/tech and CES conference momentum drive the gap.
Q2 tech earnings season hits in late July. When the Magnificent Seven report strong numbers, Nasdaq surges past SPY.
The Nasdaq drops 40% more than SPY in September. Growth stocks face the sharpest risk-off selling and valuation compression.
Holiday spending expectations and Q3 earnings momentum create a larger November rally for the Nasdaq — the biggest monthly gap vs. SPY.
The Nasdaq's year-end rally is typically 40–60% larger than SPY's, driven by tech sector earnings momentum, holiday electronics spending, and risk-on positioning.
Growth-into-tech rotation at the start of the year. CES conference catalysts, fresh fund allocations, and new-year optimism favor tech-heavy indices.
The Nasdaq drops more than SPY in September — tech stocks get disproportionately hit by risk-off moves, mutual fund fiscal year-end selling, and growth valuation compression.
Q2 tech earnings season creates a strong July for the Nasdaq. Companies like AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, and META report, driving sector momentum.
Nasdaq seasonality has unique angles worth testing. Here are the questions the backtest tool can answer.
Is the Nasdaq year-end rally getting stronger or weaker?
Run a rolling 10-year backtest on the Nov–Dec window to see if the pattern is strengthening with tech concentration growth.
Does Nasdaq seasonality survive rate hike environments?
Filter the backtest by years when the Fed was tightening. Growth stocks are rate-sensitive — does the seasonal pattern hold?
What happens when NVDA has a bad quarter?
Test whether the Nasdaq's January rally holds in years when the largest semiconductor stocks underperformed. Concentration risk cuts both ways.
The Nasdaq's seasonal edge is sharper — but so is the risk. Here's how to move from chart observation to validated thesis inside the platform.
Use the screener to compare QQQ seasonal windows with AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, and AMZN patterns side by side. Spot where concentration helps — and where it hurts.
Open Nasdaq in Screener →Run a full backtest on the Nov–Dec long window. See how it performed during rate hikes, during the 2022 tech crash, and during AI-driven rallies. The backtest shows everything.
Backtest Now →Use the research platform to overlay Nasdaq seasonality with earnings season timing. Understand how Q2 and Q3 earnings create seasonal momentum — and what happens when they disappoint.
Open Research Platform →| Asset | Window | Dir | Win Rate | Avg Ret | Max DD | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ | Nov 1 – Dec 31 | Long | 80% | +5.2% | -5.8% | 2.1 |
| QQQ | Oct 20 – Dec 20 | Long | 82% | +5.8% | -5.2% | 2.3 |
| QQQ | Jul 1 – Jul 31 | Long | 75% | +2.8% | -4.2% | 1.8 |
| QQQ | Jan 1 – Jan 31 | Long | 68% | +2.5% | -5.5% | 1.5 |
| QQQ | Sep 1 – Sep 30 | Short | 72% | +2.1% | -4.5% | 1.6 |
| QQQ | Aug 15 – Sep 30 | Short | 65% | +2.5% | -6.0% | 1.3 |
80%
Win Rate
+5.2%
Avg Return
20Y
History
68%
Win Rate
+2.5%
Avg Return
20Y
History
75%
Win Rate
+2.8%
Avg Return
20Y
History
72%
Win Rate
+2.1%
Avg Return
20Y
History
82%
Win Rate
+5.8%
Avg Return
20Y
History
65%
Win Rate
+2.5%
Avg Return
20Y
History
Screen, chart, and backtest Nasdaq seasonal patterns — from broad index windows to individual mega-cap timing.