Crude oil doesn't care about earnings season. Its calendar is set by driving demand, refinery maintenance, hurricane risk, and winter heating — physical forces that create the most structurally grounded seasonality in any market.
Screen and validate oil's recurring patterns across 20+ years of data. From crude to gasoline to natural gas — every energy seasonal window, tested.
20-Year Seasonality Profile
Watch the workflow before exploring the use case: discovery, validation, and execution planning in one clear process.
Feb–Apr
Strongest Window
+6.5% avg, 73% WR
Sep
Weakest Month
-2.1% avg return
8+
Energy Instruments
CL, NG, HO, RB, Brent...
20Y+
Data Depth
Daily resolution
Oil prices are governed by a physical demand cycle that repeats every year. Understanding this calendar is the key to reading oil seasonality.
Cold weather drives heating oil and natural gas demand. Crude benefits from overall energy demand strength. Storage drawdowns accelerate.
Refineries exit maintenance and ramp gasoline production. Crude demand peaks as the pre-summer build accelerates. Oil's strongest seasonal phase.
Peak gasoline consumption. But prices often cool after the spring rally as the demand ramp-up is already priced in. Hurricane risk adds volatility.
Post-Labor Day gasoline demand drops. Refineries enter fall maintenance. September is crude oil's weakest month. Natural gas begins its winter rally.
The spring ramp-up, summer plateau, and fall decline create oil's distinctive seasonal shape — driven entirely by physical demand cycles.
20-Year Cumulative Average
Crude oil, natural gas, gasoline, and heating oil each follow distinct seasonal drivers. Here's how they compare.
Primary driver: Refinery demand
The broadest energy seasonal play. Driven by aggregate demand for all refined products. Spring strength is the signature pattern.
Primary driver: Heating demand
The most volatile energy seasonal pattern. Winter storage expectations create fall rallies of 8–15%. Spring weakness follows the heating season end.
Primary driver: Driving season
Gasoline leads crude's spring rally. The pre-summer buildup creates the strongest, most reliable seasonal pattern in the energy complex.
Primary driver: Winter heating
Winter preparation drives the fall rally. Heating oil's seasonality is the most directly weather-dependent in the energy complex.
Refineries restock ahead of summer driving season. Crude oil demand rises as gasoline production ramps up. One of the most reliable energy seasonal patterns — 73% win rate.
After Labor Day, gasoline demand falls sharply. Refineries enter fall maintenance. The demand cliff creates crude oil's weakest seasonal month.
Gulf of Mexico hurricane season adds a risk premium to crude oil and natural gas. Even in years without major storms, the threat alone lifts prices.
Cold weather increases heating oil and natural gas demand. Crude oil benefits indirectly from overall energy demand strength.
Oil seasonality is strong, but volatile. Here's what smart energy traders test before committing.
Does the Feb–Apr rally hold when OPEC is cutting?
Filter the backtest by OPEC supply regimes. The spring rally is demand-driven — but supply cuts can amplify or dampen the move.
How volatile is the hurricane season premium?
Test the Aug–Oct window in years with and without major Gulf storms. The risk premium varies significantly year to year.
Is natural gas seasonality getting more extreme?
Run a rolling backtest on the Sep–Nov natural gas window. Climate volatility and storage constraints may be making the pattern more pronounced.
What's the optimal exit for the gasoline spring rally?
Test exit dates from Apr 15 to Jun 1. The gasoline rally peaks before summer actually starts — timing the exit matters as much as timing the entry.
Oil's physical calendar creates some of the most actionable seasonal patterns in any market. Here's how to work with them inside Seasonality360.
Open the screener filtered to crude oil, natural gas, gasoline, and heating oil. Rank windows by win rate and profit factor to find the most consistent energy seasonal patterns.
Open Energy Screener →Run a Feb 1 – Apr 30 long crude backtest. See how it performed during OPEC cuts, shale booms, and COVID demand destruction. 20 years of trade-level data.
Backtest Feb–Apr →Use the research platform to overlay crude oil and natural gas seasonal profiles. Their calendars are almost opposite — crude peaks in spring, gas peaks in fall. Find cross-energy opportunities.
Research Energy Complex →| Asset | Window | Dir | Win Rate | Avg Ret | Max DD | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil (CL) | Feb 1 – Apr 30 | Long | 73% | +6.5% | -8.2% | 1.8 |
| Crude Oil (CL) | Dec 15 – Mar 15 | Long | 70% | +5.8% | -9.5% | 1.6 |
| Crude Oil (CL) | Sep 1 – Sep 30 | Short | 68% | +3.2% | -5.5% | 1.5 |
| Gasoline (RB) | Feb 1 – May 15 | Long | 74% | +7.2% | -7.8% | 1.9 |
| Nat Gas (NG) | Sep 1 – Nov 15 | Long | 72% | +8.1% | -12.4% | 1.5 |
| Heating Oil (HO) | Oct 1 – Dec 31 | Long | 70% | +5.5% | -8.0% | 1.6 |
73%
Win Rate
+6.5%
Avg Return
20Y
History
70%
Win Rate
+5.8%
Avg Return
20Y
History
68%
Win Rate
+3.2%
Avg Return
20Y
History
72%
Win Rate
+8.1%
Avg Return
20Y
History
70%
Win Rate
+5.5%
Avg Return
20Y
History
74%
Win Rate
+7.2%
Avg Return
20Y
History
Seasonality360 takes you from a raw seasonal observation to a backtested, portfolio-ready edge — in one integrated workflow.
Step 1
Scan thousands of seasonal patterns across markets, timeframes, and calendar windows.
Step 2
Read seasonality charts, monthly returns, and historical consistency at a glance.
Step 3
Backtest any pattern with real historical data — equity curves, drawdowns, trade-by-trade.
Step 4
Combine validated patterns into diversified portfolios with aggregate risk metrics.
Screen, chart, and backtest seasonal patterns across crude oil, natural gas, gasoline, and heating oil — with 20+ years of data.